By Filippo di Mauro, Marco J Lombardi, Stephane Dees
Ancient cross-country interactions, this publication examines the position of the USA on this planet economic system. Illustrating that US shocks are inclined to have an international nature and that financial Union basically in part shelters the Euro region from its exterior atmosphere, the publication argues that the USA may still totally think its accountability, minimizing surprise transmission.
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Additional resources for Catching the Flu from the United States: Synchronisation and Transmission Mechanisms to the Euro Area
Our regression analysis would suggest that this co-movement could be partly explained by intensive bilateral relationships in both the real and financial spheres. indd 36 5/11/2010 11:15:16 AM Disentangling Global Trade and Financial Linkages 37 Moreover, our analysis shows the importance of indirect effects, especially as regards the role of financial integration on similarity in production structure. From a euro area perspective, this is consistent with the fact that a significant part of euro area mergers and acquisitions moved away from manufacturing and towards telecommunications from the late 1990s.
Nevertheless, the import-export correlation is not just a mirror of the saving-investment correlation (Bebczuk, 2008). In particular, the tendency of imports and exports to move together is possibly due to a higher share of the production processes being delocalised abroad in order to benefit from lower labour costs, therefore generating additional trade flows partly via an increase in imported intermediate inputs. Second, when considering the contribution of trade to GDP, one must take into account the overall impacts on the economy rather than just the basic net trade contribution, which appears to be rather small.
Van Wincoop, 2001, ‘Borders and Business Cycles’, Journal of International Economics, 55, 59–85. , R. Anderton and A. Hijzen, 2004, ‘On the Determinants of Euro Area Fdi to the United States: The Knowledge-Capital – Tobin’s Q Framework’, European Central Bank Working Paper No. 329. Dees, S. and N. Zorell, 2010, ‘Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages’, European Central Bank Working Papers, forthcoming. Feldstein, M. and C.
Catching the Flu from the United States: Synchronisation and Transmission Mechanisms to the Euro Area by Filippo di Mauro, Marco J Lombardi, Stephane Dees